National View
Average arable land values across England and Wales increased by 0.9% during Q4 and by 4.5% during 2021, to reach £8,833 per acre. Arable land is now 13% below its previous peak in 2016.
Following the 2016 referendum on EU membership, the rural land market saw a lengthy period of falling or stagnant pricing. In England, the increased clarity from the Government over the transition from the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS, which ends in 2027) to the new Environmental Land Management Scheme (ELMS) has brought greater certainty to the market, fostering a significant improvement in sentiment.
We are seeing growing interest from buyers looking for opportunities to improve biodiversity or for carbon capture. The emergence of a new type of buyer has been evident in recent months, with an interest in agricultural land for the public good it facilitates, rather than simply in its farming potential. These buyers range from high net worth individuals through to companies and trusts, and those with rollover funds or capital from the sale of companies.
£8,833
per acre
Average
arable land value in q4
Q-ON-Q
CHANGE
0.9%
4.5%
y-ON-y
CHANGE
£7,161
per acre
Average
PASTURE land value in q4
Q-ON-Q
CHANGE
2.4%
6.2%
y-ON-y
CHANGE
Farmland
Market Update
Q4 2021
Key data and expert commentary outlining trends in the farmland market
"Land values across England and Wales have responded to the improving sentiment, with growth accelerating noticeably during 2021."
Average land values in
England and Wales
FIGURE 1
Publicly marketed
farmland supply
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 3
Commodity price trends
Source: Carter Jonas, AHDB, Farmers Weekly, DEFRA
Inputs
Outputs
Crude Oil
Fertiliser
Red Diesel
Feed Wheat
Rapeseed Oil
Milk
Beef
Pork
Average land values in
England and Wales
FIGURE 1
Publicly marketed
farmland supply
FIGURE 2
Average land values in
England and Wales
FIGURE 1
Source: Carter Jonas
Average land values in
England and Wales
FIGURE 1
Average land values in
England and Wales
FIGURE 1
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Dec 2011
Dec 2021
£ per acre
Pasture
Arable
Publicly marketed
farmland supply
FIGURE 2
Source: Farmers Weekly
Acres
As at November
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 17
Dec 20
CRUDE OIL
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/barrel
55.8
Dec ‘21
4.4%
52.3%
Fertiliser
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/tonne
616.2
Nov ‘21
78.1%
181.6%
Red Diesel
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/litres
77.5
Dec ‘21
15.3%
48.9%
Feed Wheat
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/tonne
219.7
Dec ‘21
11.2%
11.9%
Rapeseed Oil
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/tonne
538.2
Dec ‘21
5.6%
42.6%
MILK
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/litre
32.5
Oct ‘21
6.8%
8.5%
BEEF
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/kg dw
408.8
Dec ‘21
-0.6%
10.5%
Pork
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/kg dw
148.4
Dec ‘21
-7.7%
-3.6%
Click a location for
a local overview
East of england
Arable
Pasture
£6,500
£5,300
£10,250
£9,300
£8,500
£6,800
3.0%
0.7%
6.9%
4.6%
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
Average
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
East of England land values
Dec 16
Dec 21
£ per acre
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
North west
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£7,750
£5,750
£11,000
£8,750
£9,500
£7,250
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
7.4%
Pasture
EMAIL DEBORAH
01539 814914
Associate Partner
Deborah Lund
North West land values
Dec 16
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
Dec 21
Wales
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£8,250
£4,250
£9,500
£8,500
£8,500
£6,500
0.0%
8.3%
0.0%
8.3%
Pasture
EMAIL Hugh
01248 360417
Partner
Hugh O’Donnell
Wales land values
£0
£10,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
North east
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£6,000
£4,000
£8,250
£6,250
£7,000
£5,500
0.0%
0.0%
3.7%
4.8%
Pasture
EMAIL Sam
01423 707801
Associate Partner
Sam Johnson
North East land values
£0
£10,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
Yorkshire and the Humber
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£7,500
£5,000
£10,250
£6,750
£8,500
£6,500
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Pasture
EMAIL Sam
01423 707801
Associate Partner
Sam Johnson
Yorkshire and the Humber land values
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
East Midlands
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£6,250
£6,000
£10,000
£8,000
£8,000
£7,000
1.9%
2.9%
3.2%
2.9%
Pasture
East Midlands land values
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
West Midlands
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£8,000
£7,000
£12,250
£10,000
£10,000
£8,500
2.0%
2.4%
4.2%
6.3%
Pasture
EMAIL MICHAEL
07801 173004
Associate
Michael Paton
West Midlands land values
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
South east
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£8,900
£7,500
£10,500
£8,750
£9,750
£8,400
1.0%
3.7%
5.4%
8.4%
Pasture
EMAIL Andrew
07880 084633
Partner
Andrew Chandler
South East land values
Dec 16
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
Dec 21
Wales
West Midlands
East Midlands
South west
South east
East of england
Yorkshire & the humber
North east
North west
EMAIL Dan
020 7518 3301
Head of Research
Dan Francis
Get in touch
Click a trend for more info
Land values across England and Wales have responded to the improving sentiment, with growth accelerating noticeably during 2021. Average pasture land recorded an increase of 6.2% during the year, its fastest rate since 2016. This marks a significant turnaround compared with 2020, when average values fell by 1.3%. 2021 saw low quality pasture land rise in value by an average of 9.5%, compared with 5.3% for prime land.
EMAIL MARK
01223 346628
Partner
Mark Russell
EMAIL MARK
01223 346628
Partner
Mark Russell
Average arable land values increased by 4.5% during 2021, also the fastest rate of growth since 2016. As with pasture land, this marked a significant turnaround compared with 2020, when values fell by 1.0%.
160,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
120,000
140,000
Pasture land also recorded a strong rate of growth, at 2.4% during Q4. The annual rate accelerated to 6.2% by the end of 2021, and the average land value reached £7,161 per acre. Pasture land is now 5.9% below its previous peak in 2016.
Although demand for agricultural land is rising, the level of newly marketed supply has remained subdued. 64,000 acres of farmland was publicly marketed in 2021, almost identical to the 2020 figure, and well below the 10-year average (to 2020) of 138,000 acres per annum (source: Farmers Weekly). We are now starting to see a modest increase in stock coming to the market in some areas, but in many locations there is still little sign of significant additional land being marketed.
However, reductions to the BPS and wider policy changes will focus the minds of straight farming operators over potential income loss and lower profitability, pushing them to assess their position and consider restructuring or diversifying. The continued erosion of BPS entitlements will expose those mid-scale farming enterprises which have been unable, or unwilling, to adapt to the changing subsidy regime. We may therefore see more of these types of holdings come to the marketplace in 2022.
With further modest rises in interest rates likely this year, some highly geared borrowers may also assess their position and consider selling. There is also the danger that rising inflation, in particular the cost of key inputs such as fertiliser and diesel, will adversely affect profitability. This could also be a catalyst for more farms coming to the market.
If, as we expect, new supply rises modestly in 2022, it will still take time for the market to return to balance, given the low levels of new supply seen over the last two years. Supply remains constrained across much of England and Wales and, with demand strengthening, we expect further upward pressure on land values during the year.
Pasture land will continue to show the strongest growth rates, buoyed by demand for land that has natural capital, or carbon or nutrient neutrality potential – for example tree planting. There will be increased demand from a range of buyers for tree-planting land, as well as established woodland, with the ongoing focus on nature recovery at the government level fuelling public and private sector interest. The potential impact on the market should not be underestimated, and given the overall shortage of marketed supply, this will help to maintain pressure on agricultural land values across the board.
180,000
200,000
Dec 16
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 21
South WEst
Arable
Low
£ / acre
Prime
£ / acre
£ / acre
Quarterly %
Annual %
Average
£8,500
£5,000
£11,000
£9,000
£9,750
£8,000
0.0%
0.0%
14.7%
8.1%
Pasture
EMAIL David
01823 428591
Partner
David Hebditch
South West land values
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
EMAIL Andrew
07880 084633
Head of Agency
Andrew Chandler
Source: Carter Jonas, AHDB, Farmers Weekly, DEFRA
Commodity price trends
Inputs
Outputs
Crude Oil
Fertiliser
Red Diesel
Milk
Beef
Feed Wheat
Rapeseed Oil
Pork
CRUDE OIL
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/barrel
55.8
Dec ‘21
4.4%
52.3%
Fertiliser
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/tonne
616.2
Nov ‘21
78.1%
181.6%
Red Diesel
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/litres
77.5
Dec ‘21
15.3%
48.9%
Feed Wheat
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/tonne
219.7
Dec ‘21
11.2%
11.9%
Rapeseed Oil
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
£/tonne
538.2
Dec ‘21
5.6%
42.6%
MILK
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/litre
32.5
Oct ‘21
6.8%
8.5%
BEEF
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/kg dw
408.8
Dec ‘21
-0.6%
10.5%
Pork
Unit
Latest data
Date
Quarterly change
Annual change
pence/kg dw
148.4
Dec ‘21
-7.7%
-3.6%
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Tap a location for
a local overview
WEST MIDLANDS
NORTH EAST
SOUTH WEST
WALES
NORTH WEST
YORKSHIRE & HUMBER
EAST MIDLANDS
EAST OF ENGLAND
SOUTH EAST
2019
EMAIL DEBORAH
CLOSE
01539 814914
Senior Surveyor
Deborah Lund
View on desktop for a full overview
North West land values
£0
£12,000
£ per acre
Arable
Pasture
2019
CLOSE
View on desktop for a full overview
North East land values
£0
£10,000
£ per acre
01423 707801
Associate
Sam Johnson
EMAIL Sam
Arable
Pasture
2019
CLOSE
View on desktop for a full overview
Yorkshire & The Humber
land values
£0
£12,000
£ per acre
01423 707801
Associate Partner
Sam Johnson
EMAIL Sam
Arable
Pasture
2019
CLOSE
View on desktop for a full overview
Wales land values
£0
£10,000
£ per acre
EMAIL Hugh
01248 360417
Partner
Hugh O' Donnell
Arable
Pasture
2019
CLOSE
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East Midlands land values
£0
£12,000
£ per acre
Arable
Pasture
EMAIL mark
01223 346628
Partner
Mark Russell
2019
CLOSE
West Midlands land values
£0
£12,000
£ per acre
EMAIL michael
07801 173004
Associate
Michael Paton
Arable
Pasture
View on desktop for a full overview
2019
CLOSE
View on desktop for a full overview
East of England land values
£0
£12,000
£ per acre
EMAIL mark
01223 346628
Partner
Mark Russell
Arable
Pasture
2019
CLOSE
View on desktop for a full overview
South East land values
£0
£12,000
£ per acre
07880 084633
Partner
Andrew Chandler
EMAIL Andrew
Arable
Pasture
2019
CLOSE
View on desktop for a full overview
South West land values
Dec 16
£0
£12,000
Arable
Pasture
£ per acre
Dec 21
EMAIL david
01962 833386
Partner
David Hebditch
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
Dec 16
Dec 21
