Local market report and housing update
Winter 2022/23
Snapshot & Location
Winchester, in the south east of the country, approximately 65 miles south west of London and 14 miles north east of its nearest city, Southampton, is one of the oldest inhabited locations in England, since prehistoric times. The city still has parts of the old Roman walls which surrounded it, with two of the original Roman gates also still standing.
Location Map
Local demographics & economic trends
Current estimates put the population of Winchester at just over 127,000. Over the last ten years the population has grown by 9%, equating to an additional 10,569 people in a decade. Going forward, growth is expected to slow slightly, increasing by just around 4% by 2032, to an estimated 132,700.
Of the just over 51,000 households in Winchester, around 63% are owner occupiers, with a further 21% being in the private rented sector, or 10,600 households. The private rented sector in Winchester can also be very busy, as not only does the city host around 8,000 students studying at The University of Winchester, but the popularity of the area of households relocating from cities like London means that they often come to first rent in the area before committing to purchase a property.
Connectivity
Winchester is exceptionally well connected, with the M3 motorway running to the east of the city centre, as well as two major junctions connecting the A31, A34 and the A272. The A303 and A30 also run just south of the city.
The local Housing Market
Sales Market
Average house prices by property type and location
Winchester
South East
England and Wales
Detached
Semi-detached
Terraced
Flat
Overall Average
£841,445
£509,767
£429,066
£252,775
£509,616
£722,124
£441,068
£342,974
£231,823
£404,990
£488,076
£298,211
£253,644
£253,542
£311,074
Source: HM Land Registry (October 2022, latest data)
"As with many other areas across the country, the level of demand in the sales market over the last three years has been exceptional and well above average."
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Rental Market
The latest data from the Office for National Statistics and the Valuation Office (Q1 2022) notes that average rents in Winchester are £1,145 per calendar month (pcm) with the upper quartile reaching an average of £1,300 pcm. Rents in Winchester are typically around 17% higher than the wider Hampshire area, reflecting the high demand for such a prestigious and aspirational area as Winchester.
Winchester
Besides the city’s major gothic landmark of Winchester Cathedral (originally built in 1079), there are many other landmarks of historical and architectural significance for which the city is now known, including Winchester Castle, Winchester Guildhall and The Hospital of St Cross. Its quaint narrow streets and historic buildings of many styles (Gothic and Tudor, among others) make it exceptionally pleasant, and it is a much sought-after part of the country to live in.
The city benefits from fast links to many other towns and cities making it a very popular commuter area. It is also well situated in the countryside, being just on the edge of the South Downs National Park, and it hosts some of the country’s highest performing independent schools and colleges. Many families come to relocate here for better access to these popular schools. All of this has led to Winchester becoming one of the most expensive, desirable and affluent areas of the country.
The affluence of the local population can be seen by the average earnings in Winchester which are around 15% above the national average, at £43,759. Unemployment is also exceptionally low, at just 2.8%, compared with 3.8% across the country. Of those in employment, 63% are in managerial, directorial or associate and professional occupations. There are a large number of employed persons in Winchester who also work in health and social care, accounting for 16% of employed persons, compared with 13.5% nationally.
Winchester draws a high number of tourists every year to the area, enticed by its many historic landmarks, architecture, and Anglo-Saxon history. Visitors and locals alike however enjoy wandering through the city’s narrow, winding streets with a retail offering of independent boutiques, big name and designer shops, cafes, restaurants, antique and vintage stores as well as vibrant galleries.
Winchester is home to many fantastic and well-regarded primary and secondary educational institutions of all types including independent, state, faith, and preparatory / private. Location based on nearby top-performing primary and secondary schools is often a very strong factor in deciding where to move and locate, with proximity to the best schools strongly correlated to local average house prices. Research has shown that homes located near top-performing schools can add anywhere from £30,000 - £60,000 to home values. There are 12 ’Outstanding’ schools in Winchester, and a further six independent / preparatory schools including two of the country’s best performers: St Swithun’s and Winchester College.
The popularity of Winchester and its relative affluence means average house prices here are higher than the wider region. At £509,616 this reflects a 26% premium over the average price of a house in the South East. Over the last year house inflation reached 9.5% in Winchester, slightly below the national average of 12.9% while across the South East house prices also grew by around 12.0%.
The Local Housing Market
Average house price
Average house price growth
Average rent
(£ per calendar month)
Annual rental growth
Gross Yield
£509,616
9.5%
14%
£1,502
3.0%
Sources: HM Land Registry, REalyse
More timely data (end 2022) finds that average rents in Winchester have risen throughout the year with average rents now of around £1,502 (REalyse). Over the last year, rents in the area have grown by over 14% which has in turn pushed gross yields out further as well. Yields are now around 3.0%, up from 2.8% the year before. Looking ahead, we expect that the lack of available stock and rising tenant demand that we have seen over the last 12-18 months will continue and this will in turn put more upward pressure on rents. Nevertheless, we anticipate more modest growth of between 4 and 6% over the coming 12 months.
Sources used: Carter Jonas Research, Experian, Google maps, HM Land Registry, Office for National Statistics, REalyse, Rightmove
Notes: REalyse rental data 12-month rolling average
Get in touch
Email me
01962 842742
Sales
Sophie Richardson
Email me
01962 876838
Lettings
Zaza Oswald
For further information, please get in touch with one of our local experts
Winchester railway station is conveniently located in the heart of the city centre. It provides regular service by South Western Railway to London Waterloo, Weymouth, Portsmouth and Southampton. CrossCountry services also call at the station and provide access to Bournemouth, Manchester, Newcastle and Birmingham.
Unsurprisingly, many places across the UK with average house prices well above the national figure saw house prices grow at a less frenetic pace than in areas with below-average prices, so Winchester is no different in that respect. Similarly, house price inflation reached 24.5% in Winchester since the start of the pandemic (February 2020) which is when the current housing market ‘boom’ began, whereas across England and Wales the national average here was 28.4% over
the period.
As with many other areas across the country, the level of demand in the sales market over the last three years has been exceptional and well above average. The stamp duty tax holiday, combined with a renewed interest from many households to live and work in less urban areas, meant that demand in places like Winchester was extremely high. This resulted in many months of above average monthly sales transactions, particularly during late 2020 and into 2021, placing upward pressure on prices.
During the latter half of 2022, demand did begin to cool slightly, as rising mortgage rates and inflation rates hampered potential moves. We expect this trend to continue into 2023, although during the latter part of the year – with inflation expected to sink to single digits again and mortgage rates to stabilise – we anticipate that demand and subsequently sales levels will return to at least their pre-COVID averages. In terms of prices, we forecast a very modest decline of only about 2.4% in the year ahead.
Notes: Rental rates areas: five-mile radius from centre. Projected house price growth, incomes and demographics data, areas: Respective local authority
2032 forecast
population
(number)
132,699
Ten-year forecast population
(% change)
4%
Proportion of population who are owner occupiers
63%
Proportion of
population who are private renters
21%
Average annual
income
(2022, provisional)
£50,354
Five-year projected house price growth (cumulative)
5.6%
